India to become largest DTH market by 2012: Study

New Delhi, April 21 (IANS) India will become the largest DTH (direct-to-home) market in the world in terms of subscribers by 2012, overtaking the United States, according to a recent study.

According to the report published by Media Partners Asia (MPA), DTH subscribers here will climb from a net installed base of 17 million in 2009 to reach 45 million by 2014 and 58 million by 2020. MPA is a Hong Kong based leading provider of information services covering media and communications markets. By 2009, 15 percent of India's pay-TV homes had at least one set-top box. This will grow to 38 percent by 2014 and almost 50 percent by 2020 with HDTV gaining more traction after 2010, driven by DTH satellite networks, the study said.

The study predicts digital cable will grow to 17 million subscribers by 2014 and 29 million by 2020 while cable broadband, a key driver of future cable sector profits, will grow from 850,000 homes in 2009 to three million by 2014. 'We are more positive on India's DTH opportunity than previously, especially when anchored to consolidation and improved pricing power with continued growth,' MPA executive director Vivek Couto, said in a statement. 'We suspect the DTH market will consolidate from six to four platforms within three to five years, and estimate four will be making money at the EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) level by FYE March 2013... The major risk to all our growth assumptions is regulation, which continues to commoditise and destroy industry value,' he added.

Projections from the report suggest that pay-TV subscribers will grow from 105 million in 2009 to 149 million by 2014 and 173 million by 2020. This means pay-TV penetration will grow from 78 percent in 2009 to more than 90 percent in the long-term. Cable will retain 70 percent market share by 2014, falling to 64 percent by 2020, while DTH will scale up to almost 35 percent share in the long-term. Total pay-TV subscription revenues will grow at an average annual rate of 14 percent over the next five years and 10 percent over the next decade, reaching $8 billion by 2014 and more than US$12 billion by 2020. Revenues from HDTV and VAS (including VOD, HDTV and PVR) will contribute more than $500 million by 2014, rising to $1.5 billion by 2020.

The report also suggests that a resurgent economy, an expanded pay-TV market and the growth of regional media should help bolster pay-TV advertising growth to an average annual rate of 14 percent over the next five years, and 10.5 percent over the next decade. MPA sees the total pay-TV advertising market reaching US$3.2 billion in 2014 and US$5.1 billion by 2020.

Courtesy - India Interacts website